季節(jié)變動
年份 1季度 2季度 3季度 4季度 總計 季平均值
2000 231.5 285.1 375.9 253.8 1146.3 286.575
2001 257.8 296.3 387.4 279.2 1220.7 305.175
2002 245.6 287.4 384.7 283.5 1201.2 300.3
2003 251.8 302.6 392.1 287.6 1234.1 308.525
2004 241.9 312.5 405.7 278.3 1238.4 309.6
同季平均 245.72 296.78 389.16 276.48 302.035
年份 季度 季順序t 銷售量y 趨勢值 趨勢季節(jié)比率（％）
2000 1 1 107 321.2 33.31257783
2 2 456 331.4894737 137.5609291
3 3 512 341.7789474 149.8044288
4 4 238 352.0684211 67.60049632
2001 1 5 127 362.3578947 35.04822217
2 6 571 372.6473684 153.2279706
3 7 641 382.9368421 167.3905275
4 8 251 393.2263158 63.83092634
2002 1 9 158 403.5157895 39.15584077
2 10 629 413.8052632 152.0038666
3 11 660 424.0947368 155.625605
4 12 293 434.3842105 67.45180716
2003 1 13 176 444.6736842 39.57958527
2 14 654 454.9631579 143.7479032
3 15 686 465.2526316 147.4467748
4 16 305 475.5421053 64.13732804
2004 1 17 186 485.8315789 38.28487238
2 18 680 496.1210526 137.0633228
3 19 725 506.4105263 143.1644807
4 20 324 516.7 62.70563189



SUMMARY OUTPUT

回歸統計
Multiple R 0.274290553
R Square 0.075235308
Adjusted R Square 0.023859491
標準誤差 219.2666092
觀測值 20

方差分析
df SS MS F Significance F
回歸分析 1 70405.72368 70405.72368 1.464410943 0.241882093
殘差 18 865401.2263 48077.84591
總計 19 935806.95

Coefficients 標準誤差 t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% 下限 95.0% 上限 95.0%
Intercept 310.9105263 101.8562372 3.052444649 0.006855789 96.91851291 524.9025397 96.91851291 524.9025397
X Variable 1 10.28947368 8.502794402 1.210128482 0.241882093 -7.57423445 28.15318182 -7.57423445 28.15318182



RESIDUAL OUTPUT PROBABILITY OUTPUT

觀測值 預測 Y 殘差 標準殘差 百分比排位 Y
1 321.2 -214.2 -1.003662075 2.5 107
2 331.4894737 124.5105263 0.583410332 7.5 127
3 341.7789474 170.2210526 0.797592973 12.5 158
4 352.0684211 -114.0684211 -0.534482484 17.5 176
5 362.3578947 -235.3578947 -1.102800154 22.5 186
6 372.6473684 198.3526316 0.92940716 27.5 238
7 382.9368421 258.0631579 1.20918863 32.5 251
8 393.2263158 -142.2263158 -0.666419978 37.5 293
9 403.5157895 -245.5157895 -1.150396296 42.5 305
10 413.8052632 215.1947368 1.008323044 47.5 324
11 424.0947368 235.9052632 1.10536492 52.5 456
12 434.3842105 -141.3842105 -0.662474183 57.5 512
13 444.6736842 -268.6736842 -1.258905636 62.5 571
14 454.9631579 199.0368421 0.932613118 67.5 629
15 465.2526316 220.7473684 1.034340625 72.5 641
16 475.5421053 -170.5421053 -0.799097307 77.5 654
17 485.8315789 -299.8315789 -1.404900021 82.5 660
18 496.1210526 183.8789474 0.861588823 87.5 680
19 506.4105263 218.5894737 1.024229527 92.5 686
20 516.7 -192.7 -0.902921017 97.5 725
季節(jié)指數計算表
年份 1季度(%) 2季度(%) 3季度(%) 4季度(%) 總計
2000 33.31257783 137.5609291 149.8044288 67.60049632 388.2784321
2001 35.04822217 153.2279706 167.3905275 63.83092634 419.4976466
2002 39.15584077 152.0038666 155.625605 67.45180716 414.2371195
2003 39.57958527 143.7479032 147.4467748 64.13732804 394.9115914
2004 38.28487238 137.0633228 143.1644807 62.70563189 381.2183078
同季平均 37.07621968 144.7207985 152.6863634 65.14523795 399.6286195
季節(jié)指數(%) 37.11067514 144.8552896 152.828257 65.20577834 400

修正系數 1.000929314
年份 季度 季順序t 季節(jié)指數(%) 預測值
2005 1 21 37.11067514 195.5693516
2 22 144.8552896 778.2769749
3 23 152.828257 836.8392736
4 24 65.20577834 363.7555823
a 310.9105263
b 10.28947368

季節(jié)變動